Assessing the effect of abiotic variables and zooplankton on picocyanobacterial dominance in two tropical mesotrophic reservoirs by means of evolutionary computation.

Evolutionary computation has been applied to predict the occurrence of massive cyanobacteria proliferations; in the present study, this tool was further used to explore the factors responsible for maintaining picocyanobacterial dominance. Aiming to increase the understanding of factors that promote dominance of picocyanobacteria in tropical reservoirs, we chose two reservoirs used for water supplies located in different regions of Brazil and subjected to climate changes such as warmer winters that intensify water column stratification and prolonged dry seasons that cause water level decreases. This study focused on the diagnosis of the relationships among picocyanobacteria (1-2 µm), zooplankton and environmental variables using evolutionary computation. The integrated data analysis performed here was very successful in elucidating the dynamics of picocyanobacterial density variation influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors by the modeling approach. Relative water column stability - RWCS and electrical conductivity were highlighted as the most important environmental drivers for picocyanobacterial peaks. Hybrid Evolutionary Analysis (HEA) models for the two reservoirs indicated for the first time in the literature that rotifers, small-sized cladocerans and copepods (mainly nauplii) can directly or indirectly control picocyanobacteria in tropical mesotrophic reservoirs, depending on RWCS conditions and electrical conductivity. However, this control is modulated by pH, water transparency and water temperature thresholds.

Brazilian scientific production on phytoplankton studies: national determinants and international comparisons.

In this study, we determined the temporal trends of publications by Brazilian authors on phytoplankton and compared these trends to those of other Latin American countries as well as to the 14 countries ranking ahead of Brazil in terms of scientific publication. To do this, we investigated phytoplankton studies published in an international database (Thomson-ISI). The data showed that Brazil plays an important role among other Latin American countries in the publication of these studies. Moreover, the trend of studies published on phytoplankton in Brazil was similar to trends recorded in the developed countries of the world. We conclude that studies can be more deliberately targeted to reduce national and international asymmetries by focusing on projects with large spatial scales and projects that concentrate on less-studied geographic regions, thus encouraging increased productivity in remote areas of the country. Associated with this is a necessary increase in high-impact journal publications, increasing the quantity and quality of Brazilian scientific studies on phytoplankton and, consequently, their global visibility.

Climate change in Brazil: perspective on the biogeochemistry of inland waters.

Although only a small amount of the Earth's water exists as continental surface water bodies, this compartment plays an important role in the biogeochemical cycles connecting the land to the atmosphere. The territory of Brazil encompasses a dense river net and enormous number of shallow lakes. Human actions have been heavily influenced by the inland waters across the country. Both biodiversity and processes in the water are strongly driven by seasonal fluvial forces and/or precipitation. These macro drivers are sensitive to climate changes. In addition to their crucial importance to humans, inland waters are extremely rich ecosystems, harboring high biodiversity, promoting landscape equilibrium (connecting ecosystems, maintaining animal and plant flows in the landscape, and transferring mass, nutrients and inocula), and controlling regional climates through hydrological-cycle feedback. In this contribution, we describe the aquatic ecological responses to climate change in a conceptual perspective, and we then analyze the possible climate-change scenarios in different regions in Brazil. We also indentify some potential biogeochemical signals in running waters, natural lakes and man-made impoundments. The possible future changes in climate and aquatic ecosystems in Brazil are highly uncertain. Inland waters are pressured by local environmental changes because of land uses, landscape fragmentation, damming and diversion of water bodies, urbanization, wastewater load, and level of pollutants can alter biogeochemical patterns in inland waters over a shorter term than can climate changes. In fact, many intense environmental changes may enhance the effects of changes in climate. Therefore, the maintenance of key elements within the landscape and avoiding extreme perturbation in the systems are urgent to maintain the sustainability of Brazilian inland waters, in order to prevent more catastrophic future events.